1 00:00:10,869 --> 00:00:23,799 I want to talk to you about intelligent 2 00:00:13,750 --> 00:00:26,278 life in the universe and I hope my ok it 3 00:00:23,800 --> 00:00:26,278 doesn't work 4 00:00:32,259 --> 00:00:42,759 yes it's always well one can also do it 5 00:00:37,880 --> 00:00:45,880 with just typing and written here okay 6 00:00:42,759 --> 00:00:49,308 okay what do we know about 7 00:00:45,880 --> 00:00:53,290 extraterrestrial intelligence man has 8 00:00:49,308 --> 00:00:57,519 always thought about the existence of 9 00:00:53,289 --> 00:01:01,159 non-human intelligent beings like gods 10 00:00:57,520 --> 00:01:04,549 like God's angel demons in towers or 11 00:01:01,159 --> 00:01:07,728 these awful reports what the science say 12 00:01:04,549 --> 00:01:12,039 about this unfortunately have to say 13 00:01:07,728 --> 00:01:14,390 that no contact exists with 14 00:01:12,040 --> 00:01:16,940 extraterrestrial intelligence and no 15 00:01:14,390 --> 00:01:17,540 trace of their existence has ever been 16 00:01:16,939 --> 00:01:20,689 found 17 00:01:17,540 --> 00:01:22,940 one can even give a sort of proof that 18 00:01:20,689 --> 00:01:25,759 this is the case because if you would 19 00:01:22,939 --> 00:01:29,118 find an artifact which could be 20 00:01:25,759 --> 00:01:31,879 identified as beyond human engineering 21 00:01:29,118 --> 00:01:34,010 you could sell it at international 22 00:01:31,879 --> 00:01:35,780 auction for billions of dollars and I 23 00:01:34,010 --> 00:01:38,570 think Bill Gates would like to buy it 24 00:01:35,780 --> 00:01:41,870 for for that amount of money and nobody 25 00:01:38,569 --> 00:01:44,569 could ever resist having a billion 26 00:01:41,870 --> 00:01:48,409 dollars on one's bank account but it is 27 00:01:44,569 --> 00:01:50,298 still we have to say that it's almost 28 00:01:48,409 --> 00:01:53,450 certain that extraterrestrial 29 00:01:50,299 --> 00:01:56,210 intelligent civilizations exist there 30 00:01:53,450 --> 00:01:58,909 are three arguments for this one is the 31 00:01:56,209 --> 00:02:02,658 astronomical argument that a very large 32 00:01:58,909 --> 00:02:06,530 number of earth-like planets exists on 33 00:02:02,659 --> 00:02:10,459 in the universe the biological argument 34 00:02:06,530 --> 00:02:13,669 that once given an earth-like planet you 35 00:02:10,459 --> 00:02:15,979 there is a high likelihood that life and 36 00:02:13,669 --> 00:02:17,750 even intelligent life will form on it 37 00:02:15,979 --> 00:02:20,419 now if you have that many 38 00:02:17,750 --> 00:02:22,789 extraterrestrial civilizations the 39 00:02:20,419 --> 00:02:26,089 question arises why don't we have 40 00:02:22,789 --> 00:02:30,019 contact and this is the so called Fermi 41 00:02:26,090 --> 00:02:32,629 paradox and I think an explanation can 42 00:02:30,019 --> 00:02:37,360 be given if you carefully think about 43 00:02:32,629 --> 00:02:37,359 the nature of extraterrestrial life 44 00:02:38,629 --> 00:02:45,049 here you see a map of the earth and the 45 00:02:41,330 --> 00:02:47,840 project the mean annual isotherms and 46 00:02:45,050 --> 00:02:53,719 here in the center of the Sahara you see 47 00:02:47,840 --> 00:02:57,400 a red region which encircles the region 48 00:02:53,719 --> 00:03:01,219 where you have more than 25 centigrades 49 00:02:57,400 --> 00:03:05,080 annually mean annual temperature where 50 00:03:01,219 --> 00:03:08,900 very few people live there and also very 51 00:03:05,080 --> 00:03:11,330 few animals and plants so this is 52 00:03:08,900 --> 00:03:14,420 essentially almost devoid of life a 53 00:03:11,330 --> 00:03:18,560 similar region is the Arctic region and 54 00:03:14,419 --> 00:03:20,899 the Antarctic region extending from 60 55 00:03:18,560 --> 00:03:26,180 degrees northern and southern latitudes 56 00:03:20,900 --> 00:03:30,050 and because cosine of 60 degrees is 1/2 57 00:03:26,180 --> 00:03:34,040 this tells you that life is very 58 00:03:30,050 --> 00:03:36,800 sensitive to the solar radiation and the 59 00:03:34,039 --> 00:03:43,479 solar radiation can change only by a 60 00:03:36,800 --> 00:03:48,710 factor of 2 and translate this into the 61 00:03:43,479 --> 00:03:54,289 solar system you find this Exorcist is 62 00:03:48,710 --> 00:03:57,710 roughly 7 from 7 to 1.4 astronomical 63 00:03:54,289 --> 00:04:01,159 units which is roughly the region 64 00:03:57,710 --> 00:04:02,719 between the orbits of Venus and Mars now 65 00:04:01,159 --> 00:04:04,939 I don't want to talk more about 66 00:04:02,719 --> 00:04:08,389 habitable zones because there will be a 67 00:04:04,939 --> 00:04:11,719 talk on this I only want to mention that 68 00:04:08,389 --> 00:04:13,909 time dependent effect narrow this region 69 00:04:11,719 --> 00:04:17,660 very much to the so called continuously 70 00:04:13,909 --> 00:04:24,250 habitable zone which is around the 71 00:04:17,660 --> 00:04:24,250 Earth's orbit 0.95 to one point or one 72 00:04:24,970 --> 00:04:35,150 astronomical units now there is another 73 00:04:28,490 --> 00:04:38,240 problem for life existing on planets and 74 00:04:35,149 --> 00:04:40,759 this is has to do with the tides here 75 00:04:38,240 --> 00:04:43,100 you see the earth at a distance of one 76 00:04:40,759 --> 00:04:45,978 astronomical unit when you bring it 77 00:04:43,100 --> 00:04:49,909 closer to the Sun 78 00:04:45,978 --> 00:04:53,050 the tides which are due to the 79 00:04:49,908 --> 00:04:56,478 divergence of the gravitational field 80 00:04:53,050 --> 00:05:01,249 which rises with a third power of the 81 00:04:56,478 --> 00:05:05,810 distance gets very much bigger and there 82 00:05:01,249 --> 00:05:09,349 is an distance of 0.6 astronomical units 83 00:05:05,810 --> 00:05:12,168 where in a million years in a billion 84 00:05:09,348 --> 00:05:14,930 years the tides are so strong that it 85 00:05:12,168 --> 00:05:19,218 would hold the spin rotation of the 86 00:05:14,930 --> 00:05:22,519 planet and and that coal rotation excuse 87 00:05:19,218 --> 00:05:24,408 me at the coal rotation distance you 88 00:05:22,519 --> 00:05:28,250 have would have been a planet which 89 00:05:24,408 --> 00:05:31,278 almost faces one side to the Sun and the 90 00:05:28,250 --> 00:05:33,620 other side always away from it it's on 91 00:05:31,278 --> 00:05:37,009 such a planet the oceans would evaporate 92 00:05:33,620 --> 00:05:40,728 and deposit on the backside of the 93 00:05:37,009 --> 00:05:45,490 planet and life would not exist now how 94 00:05:40,728 --> 00:05:49,818 can we translate this now to other stars 95 00:05:45,490 --> 00:05:53,060 where is this and other stars now the 96 00:05:49,819 --> 00:05:56,900 other stars can be differentiated by the 97 00:05:53,060 --> 00:06:00,259 spectral type o be a fine girl or guy 98 00:05:56,899 --> 00:06:02,899 kiss me or something like this and you 99 00:06:00,259 --> 00:06:05,479 see that o stars this is a temperature 100 00:06:02,899 --> 00:06:07,968 classifications of the oysters hogs have 101 00:06:05,478 --> 00:06:10,218 very hot a surface temperature of thirty 102 00:06:07,968 --> 00:06:12,949 five thousand degrees and the habitable 103 00:06:10,218 --> 00:06:15,468 zone is far out four hundred to eight 104 00:06:12,949 --> 00:06:19,639 hundred astronomical units 105 00:06:15,468 --> 00:06:21,019 the Sun is a G star which has four or 106 00:06:19,639 --> 00:06:24,918 five thousand four hundred surface 107 00:06:21,019 --> 00:06:27,528 temperature and here we have just seen 108 00:06:24,918 --> 00:06:30,049 it the habitable zone is point seven to 109 00:06:27,528 --> 00:06:33,319 one point four as Roman units and when 110 00:06:30,050 --> 00:06:35,629 you go to any stars which are cool three 111 00:06:33,319 --> 00:06:38,539 two thousand six hundred degrees surface 112 00:06:35,629 --> 00:06:41,389 temperature there of the habitable zone 113 00:06:38,538 --> 00:06:45,288 is between point six and point one 114 00:06:41,389 --> 00:06:49,098 astronomical unit now in order to have 115 00:06:45,288 --> 00:06:51,800 intelligent life on a planet it will 116 00:06:49,098 --> 00:06:55,250 take a long time and on earth it took 117 00:06:51,800 --> 00:06:56,340 4.6 billion years and therefore the 118 00:06:55,250 --> 00:06:58,860 planet 119 00:06:56,339 --> 00:07:01,829 this central star has to live longer 120 00:06:58,860 --> 00:07:04,620 than this so all stars have only a 121 00:07:01,829 --> 00:07:07,589 lifetime of a million years so they 122 00:07:04,620 --> 00:07:11,490 certainly cannot be a seeds of life and 123 00:07:07,589 --> 00:07:13,529 even if stars for F stars the time the 124 00:07:11,490 --> 00:07:16,769 lifetime of the star is not long enough 125 00:07:13,529 --> 00:07:19,859 to develop intelligent life so these 126 00:07:16,769 --> 00:07:24,180 stars are excluded these types of stars 127 00:07:19,860 --> 00:07:27,000 that doesn't matter much because the F 128 00:07:24,180 --> 00:07:29,970 stars are the most frequent 4% of all 129 00:07:27,000 --> 00:07:32,490 stars and stars and the rest is even 130 00:07:29,970 --> 00:07:36,630 less so we can forget about these type 131 00:07:32,490 --> 00:07:39,389 of SARS seeds of life but the problem 132 00:07:36,629 --> 00:07:42,180 with the core rotation radius is a much 133 00:07:39,389 --> 00:07:44,939 bigger one here you see for the end 134 00:07:42,180 --> 00:07:48,000 stars which are so close that the 135 00:07:44,939 --> 00:07:50,310 habitable zone is very close far inside 136 00:07:48,000 --> 00:07:53,220 the core rotation radius and therefore 137 00:07:50,310 --> 00:07:58,168 planets orbiting here in this nice 138 00:07:53,220 --> 00:07:59,699 temperature zone will will Co rotate and 139 00:07:58,168 --> 00:08:02,549 therefore life will not be there and 140 00:07:59,699 --> 00:08:05,490 this all the same thing happens for the 141 00:08:02,550 --> 00:08:09,168 K stars and here we have a big problem 142 00:08:05,490 --> 00:08:14,668 because 72% of all stars in the galaxy 143 00:08:09,168 --> 00:08:16,740 galaxy M Stars and 40% case stars so 144 00:08:14,668 --> 00:08:20,060 what you conclude from this graph is 145 00:08:16,740 --> 00:08:24,030 only G stars are the ones which are 146 00:08:20,060 --> 00:08:29,209 expected to be seeds of life meaning the 147 00:08:24,029 --> 00:08:33,059 planets orbiting the G stars now what 148 00:08:29,209 --> 00:08:40,199 probability that some terrestrial planet 149 00:08:33,059 --> 00:08:43,109 will will orbit a g star and be in the 150 00:08:40,200 --> 00:08:44,970 continuously habitable zone for this I 151 00:08:43,110 --> 00:08:48,060 have to go a little bit into planet 152 00:08:44,970 --> 00:08:51,300 formation here you see the gap spiral 153 00:08:48,059 --> 00:08:55,889 galaxy m74 our Milky Way would look 154 00:08:51,299 --> 00:08:58,949 quite similar to this and the 155 00:08:55,889 --> 00:09:01,470 outstanding thing is spiral arms here 156 00:08:58,950 --> 00:09:06,450 but work on but we are mostly interested 157 00:09:01,470 --> 00:09:07,920 in are these very dark dust clouds which 158 00:09:06,450 --> 00:09:11,790 are associated 159 00:09:07,919 --> 00:09:15,289 large molecular clouds which are the 160 00:09:11,789 --> 00:09:19,230 seeds of star formation here you see 161 00:09:15,289 --> 00:09:22,639 from radio observations rate your line 162 00:09:19,230 --> 00:09:26,039 observation the outside of one of those 163 00:09:22,639 --> 00:09:29,759 one of those large molecular clouds and 164 00:09:26,039 --> 00:09:33,179 these are very cold and and because of 165 00:09:29,759 --> 00:09:38,519 dust they shield the inside from stellar 166 00:09:33,179 --> 00:09:42,088 radiation and they have very dense 167 00:09:38,519 --> 00:09:45,810 clumps and cold clumps which when they 168 00:09:42,089 --> 00:09:50,100 are disturbed in some way start to 169 00:09:45,809 --> 00:09:54,659 collapse due to their own self gravity 170 00:09:50,100 --> 00:09:57,500 and this collapse happens rather rapidly 171 00:09:54,659 --> 00:10:01,319 about five hundred thousand years and 172 00:09:57,500 --> 00:10:04,889 the radius changes by a factor of a 173 00:10:01,320 --> 00:10:07,860 thousand and already here you have a 174 00:10:04,889 --> 00:10:11,730 little rotation or everything rotates in 175 00:10:07,860 --> 00:10:15,959 the galaxies and this rotation gets 176 00:10:11,730 --> 00:10:18,539 strongly amplified because of 177 00:10:15,958 --> 00:10:21,419 conservation of angular momentum and as 178 00:10:18,539 --> 00:10:25,049 this collapse is not a homogeneous 179 00:10:21,419 --> 00:10:28,528 collapse but very inhomogeneous where 180 00:10:25,049 --> 00:10:32,490 you develop an atoll entire star cluster 181 00:10:28,528 --> 00:10:35,159 and you get in individual blobs and 182 00:10:32,490 --> 00:10:38,339 these individual blobs themselves 183 00:10:35,159 --> 00:10:41,789 developed into accretion disks in which 184 00:10:38,339 --> 00:10:45,779 you form a protostar in the middle and 185 00:10:41,789 --> 00:10:48,389 then this plate like thing fanning out 186 00:10:45,778 --> 00:10:51,120 this accretion disks and in this 187 00:10:48,389 --> 00:10:53,970 accretion disk you have a dust Lane and 188 00:10:51,120 --> 00:11:00,120 the equator in which dust accumulates 189 00:10:53,970 --> 00:11:02,519 and dust coagulates and forms in in 190 00:11:00,120 --> 00:11:05,899 timescales of a thousand to a hundred 191 00:11:02,519 --> 00:11:09,750 thousand years performs planetesimals 192 00:11:05,899 --> 00:11:12,929 which grow to sizes of a kilometer to 193 00:11:09,750 --> 00:11:15,839 ten kilometers and they then eventually 194 00:11:12,929 --> 00:11:18,729 at ten million years or so accumulate to 195 00:11:15,839 --> 00:11:20,470 planets now 196 00:11:18,730 --> 00:11:23,440 here you have a somewhat older 197 00:11:20,470 --> 00:11:28,120 calculation which shows the planet 198 00:11:23,440 --> 00:11:30,459 formation in a rather nice way here you 199 00:11:28,120 --> 00:11:32,589 have the different types of stars and 200 00:11:30,458 --> 00:11:36,069 here the distance in a logarithmic scale 201 00:11:32,589 --> 00:11:38,740 and you have two interesting lines this 202 00:11:36,070 --> 00:11:43,209 green line in this red line the green 203 00:11:38,740 --> 00:11:46,060 line separates the the region close to 204 00:11:43,208 --> 00:11:48,989 the star and we are only interested in 205 00:11:46,059 --> 00:11:52,208 the G stars as you as you have heard 206 00:11:48,990 --> 00:11:54,610 this there the temperature from the 207 00:11:52,208 --> 00:11:56,739 protostar the produce pockets up the 208 00:11:54,610 --> 00:12:00,879 accretion disk the temperature is so 209 00:11:56,740 --> 00:12:03,789 high that dust evaporates and therefore 210 00:12:00,879 --> 00:12:05,528 no planetesimals are here and so the 211 00:12:03,789 --> 00:12:07,899 heat from here on them you have the 212 00:12:05,528 --> 00:12:10,230 terrestrial planets and then you come to 213 00:12:07,899 --> 00:12:13,419 the red line and this is the ice 214 00:12:10,230 --> 00:12:15,879 formation line there the temperature the 215 00:12:13,419 --> 00:12:18,129 ingredientes has dropped below one 216 00:12:15,879 --> 00:12:22,448 hundred and seventy degrees Kelvin and 217 00:12:18,129 --> 00:12:25,720 here then ice crystals developed from 218 00:12:22,448 --> 00:12:29,919 the rather abundant water vapour in 219 00:12:25,720 --> 00:12:32,620 these in in this accretion disk and they 220 00:12:29,919 --> 00:12:36,549 quickly grow these terrestrial planets 221 00:12:32,620 --> 00:12:40,810 that which form there grow accumulating 222 00:12:36,549 --> 00:12:43,149 ice crystals but then you get masses of 223 00:12:40,809 --> 00:12:46,088 the order of five to ten earth masses 224 00:12:43,149 --> 00:12:50,078 and these masses are then become so big 225 00:12:46,089 --> 00:12:53,230 that the gravity is enough to now 226 00:12:50,078 --> 00:12:55,778 accumulate also hydrogen the most 227 00:12:53,230 --> 00:12:59,278 frequent material in accretion disk and 228 00:12:55,778 --> 00:13:04,929 helium and then quickly in a runaway 229 00:12:59,278 --> 00:13:08,588 accretion form Jupiter planets of the 230 00:13:04,929 --> 00:13:12,129 order of 380 Earth masses also in about 231 00:13:08,589 --> 00:13:14,350 ten million years now there is no life 232 00:13:12,129 --> 00:13:16,659 on these planets out there you have 233 00:13:14,350 --> 00:13:19,149 smaller objects because there you are at 234 00:13:16,659 --> 00:13:24,399 the end of this blob from which all 235 00:13:19,149 --> 00:13:29,289 these formed now we come to an equation 236 00:13:24,399 --> 00:13:30,250 which I have the honour that Francis 237 00:13:29,289 --> 00:13:32,819 sits here 238 00:13:30,250 --> 00:13:36,059 was the originator of this type of 239 00:13:32,820 --> 00:13:40,690 equation let us estimate how many 240 00:13:36,059 --> 00:13:41,500 earth-like planets can we expect in our 241 00:13:40,690 --> 00:13:45,790 galaxy 242 00:13:41,500 --> 00:13:49,120 you start off with the number of stars 243 00:13:45,789 --> 00:13:51,579 in our galaxy one point six times ten to 244 00:13:49,120 --> 00:13:54,310 eleven and we have to multiply this 245 00:13:51,580 --> 00:13:56,680 times point one to account for the fact 246 00:13:54,309 --> 00:14:01,329 that we are only interested in G stars 247 00:13:56,679 --> 00:14:07,719 then we multiply with 0.6 because we 248 00:14:01,330 --> 00:14:13,270 need population one molecular metal 249 00:14:07,720 --> 00:14:16,450 abundance only metal rich material can 250 00:14:13,269 --> 00:14:21,100 form big enough terrestrial planets you 251 00:14:16,450 --> 00:14:24,940 need multiply times 0.3 which is the 252 00:14:21,100 --> 00:14:29,170 rate of single stars because 70% of all 253 00:14:24,940 --> 00:14:31,990 stars formed members of binary or 254 00:14:29,169 --> 00:14:36,459 multiple star systems and we want to 255 00:14:31,990 --> 00:14:40,180 have a very secure and safe development 256 00:14:36,460 --> 00:14:43,870 of planet so we exclude multiple systems 257 00:14:40,179 --> 00:14:46,509 then we come to the probability that a 258 00:14:43,870 --> 00:14:49,600 Tercel planet is just in the 259 00:14:46,509 --> 00:14:55,179 continuously habitable zone this zone 260 00:14:49,600 --> 00:14:58,810 had ever had diameter of this amount and 261 00:14:55,179 --> 00:15:01,870 you divide by the distance to the ice 262 00:14:58,809 --> 00:15:07,419 formation radius and because there are 263 00:15:01,870 --> 00:15:10,120 four terrestrial planets also formed you 264 00:15:07,419 --> 00:15:13,779 multiply times four and then you come 265 00:15:10,120 --> 00:15:16,690 finally to this rather severe factor 266 00:15:13,779 --> 00:15:21,120 back there this has to do with a 267 00:15:16,690 --> 00:15:24,880 migration of Jupiter's you know that in 268 00:15:21,120 --> 00:15:28,389 1995 the first extraterrestrial planet 269 00:15:24,879 --> 00:15:31,870 where they are discovered and these were 270 00:15:28,389 --> 00:15:34,750 Jupiter sized and it's a surprising 271 00:15:31,870 --> 00:15:38,070 thing was found that we have now about 272 00:15:34,750 --> 00:15:41,899 300 of these objects that most of these 273 00:15:38,070 --> 00:15:45,350 orbit very close to stars much 274 00:15:41,899 --> 00:15:48,829 closer than the ice formation distance 275 00:15:45,350 --> 00:15:51,889 now why are they around so close to 276 00:15:48,830 --> 00:15:55,310 their central stars the reason and the 277 00:15:51,889 --> 00:15:58,250 answer is they migrated from the dust 278 00:15:55,309 --> 00:16:01,369 from the ice formation distance down to 279 00:15:58,250 --> 00:16:07,778 these distances now how can you migrate 280 00:16:01,370 --> 00:16:12,289 I mean you have to you cannot you cannot 281 00:16:07,778 --> 00:16:15,338 trick the law of angular momentum so 282 00:16:12,289 --> 00:16:17,990 what you do is you have a massive 283 00:16:15,339 --> 00:16:20,960 accretion disk and you have many many 284 00:16:17,990 --> 00:16:25,009 planetesimals and these two Peter throw 285 00:16:20,960 --> 00:16:30,950 out planetesimals from the inner parts 286 00:16:25,009 --> 00:16:34,580 outside in this way can get lower their 287 00:16:30,950 --> 00:16:37,870 angular momentum and spiral in and on on 288 00:16:34,580 --> 00:16:40,520 their way doing this they eat up all the 289 00:16:37,870 --> 00:16:43,549 terrestrial planets on their way and now 290 00:16:40,519 --> 00:16:45,850 life will then be possible because they 291 00:16:43,549 --> 00:16:51,199 have all been swallowed by the Jupiter's 292 00:16:45,850 --> 00:16:56,389 so this point 303 is the factor of 293 00:16:51,200 --> 00:16:58,910 accretion discs which which have the 294 00:16:56,389 --> 00:17:03,528 fact that the Jupiter stone my trait so 295 00:16:58,909 --> 00:17:08,058 some have just the right mass where this 296 00:17:03,528 --> 00:17:12,109 video migration does not happen so when 297 00:17:08,058 --> 00:17:15,349 you do all these calculations you find 4 298 00:17:12,109 --> 00:17:20,109 times 10 to the 6 habitable planets in 299 00:17:15,349 --> 00:17:24,379 our solar system in our galaxy and this 300 00:17:20,109 --> 00:17:27,828 looks like much but actually you find 301 00:17:24,380 --> 00:17:31,670 that among 50,000 stellar systems only 302 00:17:27,828 --> 00:17:35,450 one has a planet in the continuously 303 00:17:31,670 --> 00:17:37,970 habitable zone so this is not much 304 00:17:35,450 --> 00:17:41,960 compared to the number of stars in our 305 00:17:37,970 --> 00:17:45,769 galaxy but if you multiply with 10 to 306 00:17:41,960 --> 00:17:50,720 the 11 which are the number of galaxies 307 00:17:45,769 --> 00:17:51,558 in the universe you have 10 to the 17 4 308 00:17:50,720 --> 00:17:55,069 times 309 00:17:51,558 --> 00:17:57,980 17 earth-like planets in the universe 310 00:17:55,069 --> 00:18:01,298 and this number alone tells you we 311 00:17:57,980 --> 00:18:04,940 cannot possibly be alone in the universe 312 00:18:01,298 --> 00:18:09,499 let me now come to the second part of my 313 00:18:04,940 --> 00:18:12,889 talk take an earth-like planet how 314 00:18:09,499 --> 00:18:16,159 probable is it that life develop on it 315 00:18:12,888 --> 00:18:20,599 here we have to get the information from 316 00:18:16,159 --> 00:18:24,528 the early history of the solar of our 317 00:18:20,599 --> 00:18:29,028 earth and if you look at this very of 318 00:18:24,528 --> 00:18:36,730 early time in the so called Hadean time 319 00:18:29,028 --> 00:18:41,480 of earth evolution you will have rock as 320 00:18:36,730 --> 00:18:46,399 rock liquid rock all the way 1700 321 00:18:41,480 --> 00:18:49,128 kilometers deep in the into the into the 322 00:18:46,398 --> 00:18:54,498 interior of the earth and then 323 00:18:49,128 --> 00:18:58,998 eventually the surface surface graphs 324 00:18:54,499 --> 00:19:04,639 build builds up and at about 4.4 billion 325 00:18:58,999 --> 00:19:08,740 years of the oceans development here you 326 00:19:04,638 --> 00:19:15,008 have to stage for the appearance of life 327 00:19:08,740 --> 00:19:20,480 we know that the the solar system 328 00:19:15,009 --> 00:19:24,889 started from a meteorite with that fell 329 00:19:20,480 --> 00:19:28,009 in in in in Kazakhstan the eighth most 330 00:19:24,888 --> 00:19:31,788 common meteorite and from this we get an 331 00:19:28,009 --> 00:19:35,990 age of 0.56 seven billion years then 332 00:19:31,788 --> 00:19:38,628 fourteen million years later the moon 333 00:19:35,990 --> 00:19:41,259 formed in a collision of a mars-sized 334 00:19:38,628 --> 00:19:46,998 object called Theia 335 00:19:41,259 --> 00:19:49,730 with the earth and then for 0.45 billion 336 00:19:46,999 --> 00:19:52,970 as I already said oceans and continents 337 00:19:49,730 --> 00:19:54,769 form and there is recently a paper in 338 00:19:52,970 --> 00:19:58,269 Nature which has already been mentioned 339 00:19:54,769 --> 00:20:01,230 which just came out one or two weeks ago 340 00:19:58,269 --> 00:20:04,769 which claims that maybe 341 00:20:01,230 --> 00:20:08,150 here you already have the first simple 342 00:20:04,769 --> 00:20:13,829 forms of life which was unlike our 343 00:20:08,150 --> 00:20:16,759 present known life then was something 344 00:20:13,829 --> 00:20:20,639 which I was corrected by the expert 345 00:20:16,759 --> 00:20:23,129 people a lot of people in the field 346 00:20:20,640 --> 00:20:27,590 assumed that there was this late heavy 347 00:20:23,130 --> 00:20:33,690 bombardment going on and this was 348 00:20:27,589 --> 00:20:38,369 supposed to be nailed down with moon 349 00:20:33,690 --> 00:20:42,779 lunar observations this bombardment had 350 00:20:38,369 --> 00:20:46,759 had produced these very large Mars and 351 00:20:42,779 --> 00:20:49,619 the moon and not only was this 352 00:20:46,759 --> 00:20:53,160 discovered on on moon but also on 353 00:20:49,619 --> 00:20:57,539 Mercury and it would have also affected 354 00:20:53,160 --> 00:20:59,730 the Earth and Venus and it would have 355 00:20:57,539 --> 00:21:03,058 affected the earth much more than it has 356 00:20:59,730 --> 00:21:07,048 because it has 81 times the mass of the 357 00:21:03,058 --> 00:21:09,899 moon now immediately after the late 358 00:21:07,048 --> 00:21:14,490 heavy bombardment the idea is that then 359 00:21:09,900 --> 00:21:16,769 the broad GNote the first league living 360 00:21:14,490 --> 00:21:20,759 organism developed or maybe it has 361 00:21:16,769 --> 00:21:27,259 survived and is somewhere on earth maybe 362 00:21:20,759 --> 00:21:30,140 deep in the rocks from earlier epochs 363 00:21:27,259 --> 00:21:36,058 3.8 billion years there is this is a 364 00:21:30,140 --> 00:21:39,900 reasonable age for the Luca the last 365 00:21:36,058 --> 00:21:43,859 Universal common ancestor which already 366 00:21:39,900 --> 00:21:47,429 had DNA as memory molecules and it's the 367 00:21:43,859 --> 00:21:52,379 ancestor of all life of present life on 368 00:21:47,429 --> 00:21:59,190 earth 3.8 billion years also 3.8 billion 369 00:21:52,380 --> 00:22:03,320 years there is evidence in rocks from in 370 00:21:59,190 --> 00:22:10,909 Greenland and the ECR formation about 371 00:22:03,319 --> 00:22:13,048 special unusual c13 c12 isotope ratio 372 00:22:10,909 --> 00:22:16,019 which was interpreted 373 00:22:13,048 --> 00:22:22,378 as being a science of life being there 374 00:22:16,019 --> 00:22:26,329 this is controversial but it it seems to 375 00:22:22,378 --> 00:22:30,209 be logical that life must have been 376 00:22:26,329 --> 00:22:34,589 present at that time because 3.5 billion 377 00:22:30,210 --> 00:22:38,100 years you have confirmed micro fossils 378 00:22:34,589 --> 00:22:40,970 and stromatolites which are bacterial 379 00:22:38,099 --> 00:22:44,730 mats for sea life bacterial mats and 380 00:22:40,970 --> 00:22:47,339 therefore this is already a a very 381 00:22:44,730 --> 00:22:52,399 developed life so it must have formed 382 00:22:47,339 --> 00:22:56,038 earlier about the environment we had 383 00:22:52,398 --> 00:22:59,729 extensive volcanism hot dusty dark a 384 00:22:56,038 --> 00:23:02,730 thin crust frequent impact the moon was 385 00:22:59,730 --> 00:23:06,298 ten times closer at those days and 386 00:23:02,730 --> 00:23:10,169 therefore the tides were 1,000 times 387 00:23:06,298 --> 00:23:14,569 stronger than today from sequencing of 388 00:23:10,169 --> 00:23:20,460 the DNA and and and ribosomes of 389 00:23:14,569 --> 00:23:23,189 bacteria you find that that those who 390 00:23:20,460 --> 00:23:25,950 lived at those days where must have been 391 00:23:23,190 --> 00:23:29,159 thermophilic heat-loving bacteria you 392 00:23:25,950 --> 00:23:30,119 also think that these are hollow philic 393 00:23:29,159 --> 00:23:32,879 acid-loving 394 00:23:30,118 --> 00:23:37,259 so you would assume a very aggressive 395 00:23:32,878 --> 00:23:40,349 chemistry at this those times you have 396 00:23:37,259 --> 00:23:44,159 because of the dust a lot of static 397 00:23:40,349 --> 00:23:47,368 electricity and these charges electric 398 00:23:44,159 --> 00:23:50,369 discharges with hoo-wee UV radiation and 399 00:23:47,368 --> 00:23:53,730 you have ever parading like lagoons 400 00:23:50,368 --> 00:23:56,249 which concentrates the chemistry and so 401 00:23:53,730 --> 00:23:59,700 you have at this guy Gantt ik chemistry 402 00:23:56,249 --> 00:24:07,019 lab earth which produced enormous number 403 00:23:59,700 --> 00:24:11,350 of organic material which has been which 404 00:24:07,019 --> 00:24:14,558 has been done in the laboratory 405 00:24:11,349 --> 00:24:17,319 and in the Miller experiments now I want 406 00:24:14,558 --> 00:24:22,480 to tell you about why do we does life 407 00:24:17,319 --> 00:24:26,710 take so long to develop on earth until 408 00:24:22,480 --> 00:24:32,380 you get intelligence yeah and that is 409 00:24:26,710 --> 00:24:37,840 the fact the the fact is that life 410 00:24:32,380 --> 00:24:41,080 happens on our planet for 3.5 billion 411 00:24:37,839 --> 00:24:44,408 years only in the ocean and only in the 412 00:24:41,079 --> 00:24:48,548 last 500 million years did life conquer 413 00:24:44,409 --> 00:24:52,840 the land and work towards informed 414 00:24:48,548 --> 00:24:57,609 intelligence the reason was because from 415 00:24:52,839 --> 00:25:00,759 this first Luca a prokaryotic cell it 416 00:24:57,609 --> 00:25:03,629 took a tremendous time to form the so 417 00:25:00,759 --> 00:25:07,740 called a periodic cells which are 418 00:25:03,630 --> 00:25:09,850 fabulously complicated machines with 419 00:25:07,740 --> 00:25:14,798 internal organs called 420 00:25:09,849 --> 00:25:16,388 organelles nucleus flagella and so on 421 00:25:14,798 --> 00:25:19,329 all kind peroxisomes 422 00:25:16,388 --> 00:25:23,288 micro country yeah and so on and so on 423 00:25:19,329 --> 00:25:27,269 so this in this absolutely complicated 424 00:25:23,288 --> 00:25:32,740 machine was a precursor and this was 425 00:25:27,269 --> 00:25:36,788 roughly 1.5 billion years ago the final 426 00:25:32,740 --> 00:25:39,730 stages of this development this was the 427 00:25:36,788 --> 00:25:42,759 precursor for the next step of life 428 00:25:39,730 --> 00:25:45,788 which was multicellular life and the 429 00:25:42,759 --> 00:25:48,509 which which developed about a billion 430 00:25:45,788 --> 00:25:50,950 years ago and the important thing about 431 00:25:48,509 --> 00:25:54,220 multicellular life is that the 432 00:25:50,950 --> 00:25:57,038 individual cells can specialize so you 433 00:25:54,220 --> 00:25:59,769 can have liver cells that you have brain 434 00:25:57,038 --> 00:26:03,339 cells and you have skin cells and so on 435 00:25:59,769 --> 00:26:06,028 and so on and so the only when you have 436 00:26:03,339 --> 00:26:10,750 this was it possible to conquer the land 437 00:26:06,028 --> 00:26:17,970 and to then subsequently develop 438 00:26:10,750 --> 00:26:20,769 intelligence only a few years ago 439 00:26:17,970 --> 00:26:23,569 evolutionary biologists said 440 00:26:20,769 --> 00:26:26,118 intelligence is something which have it 441 00:26:23,569 --> 00:26:29,599 very seldom on earth it was an other 442 00:26:26,118 --> 00:26:32,898 chance you know and a lot of books are 443 00:26:29,599 --> 00:26:36,469 written on this thing but now one finds 444 00:26:32,898 --> 00:26:40,278 that intelligence develops in the animal 445 00:26:36,470 --> 00:26:43,399 kingdom on a broad basis already fish 446 00:26:40,278 --> 00:26:46,099 are quite intelligence has been recently 447 00:26:43,398 --> 00:26:48,469 studied they memorize the rock 448 00:26:46,099 --> 00:26:52,219 formations to escape and a predator 449 00:26:48,470 --> 00:26:57,429 comes Velociraptor who has been 450 00:26:52,220 --> 00:27:02,210 portrayed in this Jurassic Park movie is 451 00:26:57,429 --> 00:27:05,690 thought to be a Turkish I sized animal 452 00:27:02,210 --> 00:27:10,429 which already had feathers but couldn't 453 00:27:05,690 --> 00:27:14,599 fly the flight was not developed or not 454 00:27:10,429 --> 00:27:17,509 in this yeah and and they were very 455 00:27:14,598 --> 00:27:23,058 intelligent they hunted in groups they 456 00:27:17,509 --> 00:27:28,329 breed it in groups and then there was 457 00:27:23,058 --> 00:27:31,098 there is another step of intelligence 458 00:27:28,329 --> 00:27:32,538 that can be reached and this is 459 00:27:31,098 --> 00:27:37,009 so-called mirror 460 00:27:32,538 --> 00:27:40,970 self recognition what is this if you put 461 00:27:37,009 --> 00:27:45,200 a mirror in front of an animal it will 462 00:27:40,970 --> 00:27:45,798 it can recognize that this is an enemy 463 00:27:45,200 --> 00:27:50,538 yeah 464 00:27:45,798 --> 00:27:53,628 and in react that one finds that if you 465 00:27:50,538 --> 00:27:56,808 have animals above a certain 466 00:27:53,628 --> 00:27:59,388 intelligence they will recognize that 467 00:27:56,808 --> 00:28:02,358 this what looks out from a mirror are 468 00:27:59,388 --> 00:28:05,949 actually themselves and this about two 469 00:28:02,358 --> 00:28:08,769 years ago it has been shown by crows 470 00:28:05,950 --> 00:28:11,899 Cossack also called Corbett's 471 00:28:08,769 --> 00:28:14,690 Ravens grows and so on this type of bird 472 00:28:11,898 --> 00:28:17,268 family that they have mirror self 473 00:28:14,690 --> 00:28:20,048 recognition they recognize themselves in 474 00:28:17,269 --> 00:28:24,440 the mirror but it has also been found 475 00:28:20,048 --> 00:28:28,720 with capuchin monkeys dolphins elephants 476 00:28:24,440 --> 00:28:31,629 and naturally by all higher Apes like 477 00:28:28,720 --> 00:28:35,940 orangutans gorillas and chimpanzees 478 00:28:31,628 --> 00:28:39,699 chimpanzee actually is the closest 479 00:28:35,940 --> 00:28:42,130 being in the animal world and it is more 480 00:28:39,700 --> 00:28:47,980 and more discovered how intelligence the 481 00:28:42,130 --> 00:28:50,590 chimpanzee is from the line from the 482 00:28:47,980 --> 00:28:53,680 chimp going to the chimpanzee and to 483 00:28:50,589 --> 00:28:59,039 humans separate about 6 billion 6 484 00:28:53,680 --> 00:29:03,370 million years ago and here the first 485 00:28:59,039 --> 00:29:06,220 beings from from Thai at the time going 486 00:29:03,369 --> 00:29:07,739 along this hominid line while the 487 00:29:06,220 --> 00:29:13,690 australopithecines 488 00:29:07,740 --> 00:29:17,289 these are upright working animals which 489 00:29:13,690 --> 00:29:22,120 had a brain somewhat bigger than then 490 00:29:17,289 --> 00:29:25,329 then the human see the reason why you 491 00:29:22,119 --> 00:29:29,679 have upright walking boss because at 492 00:29:25,329 --> 00:29:34,119 that time the earth was moving towards 493 00:29:29,680 --> 00:29:38,259 the Ice Age and the big rain forests in 494 00:29:34,119 --> 00:29:40,479 Africa receded to give way to extended 495 00:29:38,259 --> 00:29:44,019 savannas and interventive you have a lot 496 00:29:40,480 --> 00:29:46,450 of grass and you have to look over the 497 00:29:44,019 --> 00:29:50,710 grass and see the brighter approaching 498 00:29:46,450 --> 00:29:54,340 you and therefore this had to be upright 499 00:29:50,710 --> 00:29:58,990 walking 2 million years ago the first 500 00:29:54,339 --> 00:30:04,269 humans appeared here I have shown you're 501 00:29:58,990 --> 00:30:08,440 a homo erectus Homo erectus not only had 502 00:30:04,269 --> 00:30:13,569 a sophisticated stone axe culture but it 503 00:30:08,440 --> 00:30:18,309 also produced Spears hunting Spears from 504 00:30:13,569 --> 00:30:23,319 special woods with with fine Peaks and 505 00:30:18,309 --> 00:30:28,329 in hunted and also used fire as a tool 506 00:30:23,319 --> 00:30:33,879 since 1.5 million years ago now let me 507 00:30:28,329 --> 00:30:36,730 summarize what we have found so far we 508 00:30:33,880 --> 00:30:39,730 have the astronomical argument that we 509 00:30:36,730 --> 00:30:42,700 have 4 times 10 to 70 earth-like planets 510 00:30:39,730 --> 00:30:46,299 in the universe and we have just seen 511 00:30:42,700 --> 00:30:47,220 that it is most likely that life in 512 00:30:46,299 --> 00:30:49,500 intelligent 513 00:30:47,220 --> 00:30:53,220 develops on earth-like planets together 514 00:30:49,500 --> 00:30:55,769 these to give you a conclusion it is 515 00:30:53,220 --> 00:30:59,130 quite certain that extraterrestrial 516 00:30:55,769 --> 00:31:02,700 intelligent life exists now the problem 517 00:30:59,130 --> 00:31:06,630 is why have you no contact what is the 518 00:31:02,700 --> 00:31:08,960 explanation for the Fermi paradox and I 519 00:31:06,630 --> 00:31:11,039 think thinking about the nature of 520 00:31:08,960 --> 00:31:13,400 extraterrestrials will give you an 521 00:31:11,038 --> 00:31:13,400 answer 522 00:31:14,069 --> 00:31:19,470 you have to pose a couple of questions I 523 00:31:17,069 --> 00:31:20,038 don't want to go into this but right 524 00:31:19,470 --> 00:31:24,298 away 525 00:31:20,038 --> 00:31:28,019 let me start with a question when do you 526 00:31:24,298 --> 00:31:32,009 expect the first intelligent beings in 527 00:31:28,019 --> 00:31:34,740 our galaxy here you have to go a little 528 00:31:32,009 --> 00:31:39,079 bit into the history of the galaxy the 529 00:31:34,740 --> 00:31:45,710 history Lexi started at the Big Bang 530 00:31:39,079 --> 00:31:51,480 13.7 billion years ago and the fireball 531 00:31:45,710 --> 00:31:55,620 got very quickly x/x extinguished and it 532 00:31:51,480 --> 00:32:00,089 got very quickly dark by the expansion 533 00:31:55,619 --> 00:32:03,178 of space and then a Dark Age developed 534 00:32:00,089 --> 00:32:06,269 which lasts about 200 million years 535 00:32:03,179 --> 00:32:10,009 until the first so-called population 3 536 00:32:06,269 --> 00:32:15,179 stars formed these were stars completely 537 00:32:10,009 --> 00:32:19,460 built from hydrogen and helium and in 538 00:32:15,179 --> 00:32:23,298 the center by nuclear fusion produced 539 00:32:19,460 --> 00:32:26,870 heavier elements up to iron and 540 00:32:23,298 --> 00:32:30,889 subsequently in a supernova explosion 541 00:32:26,869 --> 00:32:33,869 the stars were completely disrupted and 542 00:32:30,890 --> 00:32:37,650 also they are the other elements formed 543 00:32:33,869 --> 00:32:42,139 up to uranium and this material was 544 00:32:37,650 --> 00:32:44,850 thrown into the hydrogen and helium 545 00:32:42,140 --> 00:32:47,970 gases which server which came from the 546 00:32:44,849 --> 00:32:51,149 Big Bang and this way enriched this 547 00:32:47,970 --> 00:32:53,880 material and then other stars formed the 548 00:32:51,150 --> 00:32:56,788 so-called population two stars were 549 00:32:53,880 --> 00:33:00,120 which had had a more heavy elements and 550 00:32:56,788 --> 00:33:02,819 so this went on for several generation 551 00:33:00,119 --> 00:33:08,119 and eventually about ten billion years 552 00:33:02,819 --> 00:33:12,149 ago the chemical abundances of 553 00:33:08,119 --> 00:33:15,949 population 1 stars was formed and 554 00:33:12,150 --> 00:33:19,130 therefore the first earth-like planets 555 00:33:15,950 --> 00:33:22,048 because with population 2 stars the 556 00:33:19,130 --> 00:33:25,679 material planets would have two small 557 00:33:22,048 --> 00:33:30,660 mass and so at about 10 billion years 558 00:33:25,679 --> 00:33:34,679 the first earth-like planet was was came 559 00:33:30,660 --> 00:33:37,190 into being and then if you say okay it 560 00:33:34,679 --> 00:33:40,590 took about four and a half billion years 561 00:33:37,190 --> 00:33:44,808 till intelligent develops you would have 562 00:33:40,589 --> 00:33:49,289 an estimate that 5.5 billion years ago 563 00:33:44,808 --> 00:33:53,639 the first intelligent life was present 564 00:33:49,289 --> 00:33:57,089 in our galaxy now here I have shown the 565 00:33:53,640 --> 00:34:00,960 history of the earth and the earth form 566 00:33:57,089 --> 00:34:03,359 4.6 billion years ago and the first 567 00:34:00,960 --> 00:34:06,090 intelligent life of our type of 568 00:34:03,359 --> 00:34:08,429 intelligent life develop out two million 569 00:34:06,089 --> 00:34:13,590 years ago which is sort of the width of 570 00:34:08,429 --> 00:34:18,570 this of of this dashed line so you see 571 00:34:13,590 --> 00:34:21,780 in this gigantic time of four or five 572 00:34:18,570 --> 00:34:24,600 point five billion years this would give 573 00:34:21,780 --> 00:34:29,100 room or for extraterrestrial 574 00:34:24,599 --> 00:34:32,309 civilizations can we imagine intelligent 575 00:34:29,099 --> 00:34:36,179 beings that are a billion years older 576 00:34:32,309 --> 00:34:40,608 than we I think our brain is not good 577 00:34:36,179 --> 00:34:45,690 enough to ever ever come close to to an 578 00:34:40,608 --> 00:34:51,079 imagination how these beings are we can 579 00:34:45,690 --> 00:34:54,960 only make sort of a comparison a crude 580 00:34:51,079 --> 00:34:59,639 comparison and that is if we compare 581 00:34:54,960 --> 00:35:03,420 ourselves to what happened back in the 582 00:34:59,639 --> 00:35:06,000 history 1 billion years ago let's say 1 583 00:35:03,420 --> 00:35:07,409 billion year in the future we compare it 584 00:35:06,000 --> 00:35:12,539 with something 1 billion 585 00:35:07,409 --> 00:35:16,759 ago and that was before multicellularity 586 00:35:12,539 --> 00:35:20,279 so the difference between these 587 00:35:16,760 --> 00:35:25,110 extraterrestrial beings and us should be 588 00:35:20,280 --> 00:35:28,710 of the same magnitude in quality as the 589 00:35:25,110 --> 00:35:31,740 difference between us and a one cell 590 00:35:28,710 --> 00:35:34,349 animal in the ocean 1 billion years ago 591 00:35:31,739 --> 00:35:37,739 on earth we should always keep this 592 00:35:34,349 --> 00:35:39,659 gigantic difference in mind and if you 593 00:35:37,739 --> 00:35:42,479 switch on the television set at night 594 00:35:39,659 --> 00:35:45,599 and use in the evening and you see the 595 00:35:42,480 --> 00:35:48,630 star blade movies and see these Klingons 596 00:35:45,599 --> 00:35:55,440 or whatever looking at you you will say 597 00:35:48,630 --> 00:35:59,579 this is ridiculous now what can be 598 00:35:55,440 --> 00:36:07,170 expected how are these people how are 599 00:35:59,579 --> 00:36:10,409 these intelligent beings sorry what can 600 00:36:07,170 --> 00:36:13,889 we say about them compared to us they 601 00:36:10,409 --> 00:36:16,440 must have almost infinitely mentally 602 00:36:13,889 --> 00:36:20,219 more knowledge I mean we have done 603 00:36:16,440 --> 00:36:22,829 research for 2,000 years now they have a 604 00:36:20,219 --> 00:36:27,419 billion years of research behind them 605 00:36:22,829 --> 00:36:30,690 they have therefore from this knowledge 606 00:36:27,420 --> 00:36:34,730 an almost infinite greater power than we 607 00:36:30,690 --> 00:36:39,570 have and they probably have solved 608 00:36:34,730 --> 00:36:44,820 mortality and all except the accidental 609 00:36:39,570 --> 00:36:47,690 death they will have switch off can we 610 00:36:44,820 --> 00:36:50,840 say something about the body forms of 611 00:36:47,690 --> 00:36:54,139 extraterrestrial life 612 00:36:50,840 --> 00:37:00,000 do you know that a few years ago we have 613 00:36:54,139 --> 00:37:05,309 decoded the human genome and this is a 614 00:37:00,000 --> 00:37:09,090 3.5 letter construction plan of a human 615 00:37:05,309 --> 00:37:13,769 body and it is written in these four 616 00:37:09,090 --> 00:37:19,640 different letters and what you find 617 00:37:13,769 --> 00:37:21,329 today is you have about 25,000 genes and 618 00:37:19,639 --> 00:37:23,969 about 619 00:37:21,329 --> 00:37:27,298 a number of switches which control the 620 00:37:23,969 --> 00:37:29,729 genes to let's say make cell liver cells 621 00:37:27,298 --> 00:37:33,239 brain cells and so on and so on this is 622 00:37:29,728 --> 00:37:37,588 a matter of the switches and people are 623 00:37:33,239 --> 00:37:41,099 there to investigate and to especially 624 00:37:37,588 --> 00:37:43,920 to study these switches because people 625 00:37:41,099 --> 00:37:47,940 want to to grow organs and things like 626 00:37:43,920 --> 00:37:51,269 this now it is quite certain that a 627 00:37:47,940 --> 00:37:54,479 certain stretch here only marked is an 628 00:37:51,268 --> 00:37:57,689 indication a certain stretch will tell 629 00:37:54,478 --> 00:38:01,199 you the construction plan of a human 630 00:37:57,690 --> 00:38:03,630 brain and it's quite certain that we 631 00:38:01,199 --> 00:38:07,679 will soon know this construction plan 632 00:38:03,630 --> 00:38:12,420 because already fifty percent of of the 633 00:38:07,679 --> 00:38:14,669 genes are already known what they do so 634 00:38:12,420 --> 00:38:17,909 in a few years time maybe a hundred 635 00:38:14,670 --> 00:38:20,940 years or so we will have the exact 636 00:38:17,909 --> 00:38:24,690 construction plan of a human brain and 637 00:38:20,940 --> 00:38:27,449 as you know every construction plan will 638 00:38:24,690 --> 00:38:32,190 always will be worked over by engineers 639 00:38:27,449 --> 00:38:35,579 to try to improve it but secondly this 640 00:38:32,190 --> 00:38:39,108 construction plan can be used to be 641 00:38:35,579 --> 00:38:42,690 translated into computer technology and 642 00:38:39,108 --> 00:38:45,659 therefore Andrew a drill rights will be 643 00:38:42,690 --> 00:38:51,539 built there is no way in preventing this 644 00:38:45,659 --> 00:38:54,389 and therefore what we cannot predict 645 00:38:51,539 --> 00:38:57,420 what the how these extraterrestrial 646 00:38:54,389 --> 00:38:59,879 intelligent beings look like it's quite 647 00:38:57,420 --> 00:39:02,519 impossible to predict if they are very 648 00:38:59,880 --> 00:39:06,289 likely in organic miniaturized and maybe 649 00:39:02,518 --> 00:39:10,588 have even a free choice of their body 650 00:39:06,289 --> 00:39:13,319 let's have more questions can we say 651 00:39:10,588 --> 00:39:16,078 something of the average lifespan of 652 00:39:13,318 --> 00:39:17,788 such a civilization this is a different 653 00:39:16,079 --> 00:39:21,509 aggression because we don't even know it 654 00:39:17,789 --> 00:39:24,719 for ourselves can we say something about 655 00:39:21,509 --> 00:39:28,259 the number of et civilizations in our 656 00:39:24,719 --> 00:39:33,858 galaxy this was your prime interest your 657 00:39:28,259 --> 00:39:33,858 prime motivation for your Drake Equation 658 00:39:35,929 --> 00:39:45,250 the impact the lifespan depends how easy 659 00:39:41,389 --> 00:39:49,250 it is that civilization dies there are 660 00:39:45,250 --> 00:39:52,670 external dangers you remember the 661 00:39:49,250 --> 00:39:56,389 dinosaurs which were killed by asteroid 662 00:39:52,670 --> 00:39:59,059 impact I don't think these are dangerous 663 00:39:56,389 --> 00:40:04,339 which today the Mavi have to seriously 664 00:39:59,059 --> 00:40:06,920 consider because if an impact is 665 00:40:04,340 --> 00:40:10,220 imminent we could try to destroy the 666 00:40:06,920 --> 00:40:11,900 impact or we can't hide and then just 667 00:40:10,219 --> 00:40:13,849 suffer the consequences but I think 668 00:40:11,900 --> 00:40:17,210 human beings will not be extinguished 669 00:40:13,849 --> 00:40:24,069 because of this I think that the only 670 00:40:17,210 --> 00:40:27,699 and greatest and most the the most 671 00:40:24,070 --> 00:40:31,280 dangerous thing is that with increasing 672 00:40:27,699 --> 00:40:34,669 knowledge we are getting increasingly 673 00:40:31,280 --> 00:40:37,430 more powerful to destroy ourselves and 674 00:40:34,670 --> 00:40:40,880 this is the internal thing and this is 675 00:40:37,429 --> 00:40:46,609 the only danger which grows with time 676 00:40:40,880 --> 00:40:50,680 the more human beings understand the the 677 00:40:46,610 --> 00:40:55,820 more there are possibilities to kill and 678 00:40:50,679 --> 00:40:58,819 so how can we make an estimate we can 679 00:40:55,820 --> 00:41:04,280 say well we have already discussed that 680 00:40:58,820 --> 00:41:06,440 maybe these beings which were which came 681 00:41:04,280 --> 00:41:09,170 about very early in the history of the 682 00:41:06,440 --> 00:41:11,329 universe who are 10 to the 9 years are 683 00:41:09,170 --> 00:41:14,030 still around this is the optimist view 684 00:41:11,329 --> 00:41:17,480 and the pessimist will say oh we will 685 00:41:14,030 --> 00:41:19,580 not survive the next 1000 years we will 686 00:41:17,480 --> 00:41:22,010 kill surely kill ourselves if he 687 00:41:19,579 --> 00:41:25,789 continued the way it was Hitler and bin 688 00:41:22,010 --> 00:41:27,800 Laden and and and the other nice guys so 689 00:41:25,789 --> 00:41:31,730 we do not survive more than a thousand 690 00:41:27,800 --> 00:41:34,519 years but we have already lived too 691 00:41:31,730 --> 00:41:37,280 a billion two million years so you have 692 00:41:34,519 --> 00:41:40,130 these two numbers and you can make a 693 00:41:37,280 --> 00:41:43,450 logarithmic mean between these numbers 694 00:41:40,130 --> 00:41:46,640 you come up with some reasonable or some 695 00:41:43,449 --> 00:41:50,389 unreasonable number and the guess is 696 00:41:46,639 --> 00:41:53,210 let's say 10 to the 7 years okay if this 697 00:41:50,389 --> 00:41:53,868 is the lifetime what does follow from 698 00:41:53,210 --> 00:41:57,199 this 699 00:41:53,869 --> 00:42:01,010 here you have plotted the number of 700 00:41:57,199 --> 00:42:03,980 earth-like planets versus time and we 701 00:42:01,010 --> 00:42:08,950 set the first earth-like planet 702 00:42:03,980 --> 00:42:12,619 developed about 10 billion years ago and 703 00:42:08,949 --> 00:42:14,899 it increased and if the rate of 704 00:42:12,619 --> 00:42:17,630 formation of earth-like planets were 705 00:42:14,900 --> 00:42:19,760 sort of continuous over time we have 706 00:42:17,630 --> 00:42:23,510 today for all times ten to the six 707 00:42:19,760 --> 00:42:25,820 earth-like planets as I had derived I 708 00:42:23,510 --> 00:42:30,800 mean all these numbers are naturally not 709 00:42:25,820 --> 00:42:33,920 very certain but now we see that first 710 00:42:30,800 --> 00:42:38,390 intelligent life was came about four 711 00:42:33,920 --> 00:42:40,430 five point five billion years ago but 712 00:42:38,389 --> 00:42:43,400 then in ten to the seven years in ten 713 00:42:40,429 --> 00:42:46,190 million years it dies then other planets 714 00:42:43,400 --> 00:42:48,530 came about and then this life died too 715 00:42:46,190 --> 00:42:53,769 and so and so on and this whole blue 716 00:42:48,530 --> 00:42:57,050 regions are all intelligent 717 00:42:53,769 --> 00:42:58,969 civilizations which later had died under 718 00:42:57,050 --> 00:43:00,820 the assumption that they only lived ten 719 00:42:58,969 --> 00:43:06,769 to the seven years and the only 720 00:43:00,820 --> 00:43:10,460 intelligent civilization surviving they 721 00:43:06,769 --> 00:43:15,619 are formed by planets which have been 722 00:43:10,460 --> 00:43:19,699 created ten million years earlier than 723 00:43:15,619 --> 00:43:23,050 the earth and so they survived to today 724 00:43:19,699 --> 00:43:26,358 and this is a very tiny number of only 725 00:43:23,050 --> 00:43:32,800 40,000 civilizations which should be 726 00:43:26,358 --> 00:43:32,799 presently a life in the galaxy 727 00:43:35,400 --> 00:43:47,829 4,000 excuse me did I say four a four 728 00:43:39,579 --> 00:43:50,230 thousand four thousand only now can we 729 00:43:47,829 --> 00:43:54,130 say something about for how far away 730 00:43:50,230 --> 00:43:57,519 they are to see whether they could come 731 00:43:54,130 --> 00:44:02,769 here and could we say whether we can 732 00:43:57,519 --> 00:44:08,079 identify us that could be a reason why 733 00:44:02,769 --> 00:44:15,989 they have not come here now to estimate 734 00:44:08,079 --> 00:44:19,480 the distance of the next life in 735 00:44:15,989 --> 00:44:22,989 civilization in our galaxy 736 00:44:19,480 --> 00:44:27,358 you take the galaxy as a big box which 737 00:44:22,989 --> 00:44:30,729 are diameter of 100,000 light years and 738 00:44:27,358 --> 00:44:33,190 thickness of 13 hundred light years and 739 00:44:30,730 --> 00:44:36,789 in this box you throne our four thousand 740 00:44:33,190 --> 00:44:40,389 planets and distribute them equally and 741 00:44:36,789 --> 00:44:44,980 then measure or calculate the distance 742 00:44:40,389 --> 00:44:48,519 between to and you find one thousand 743 00:44:44,980 --> 00:44:51,309 seven hundred light-years this is the 744 00:44:48,519 --> 00:44:55,000 reason why City hasn't found much 745 00:44:51,309 --> 00:45:03,190 according to my opinion yeah this is 746 00:44:55,000 --> 00:45:06,068 very far away and now is there it's the 747 00:45:03,190 --> 00:45:08,369 problem of these beings that they don't 748 00:45:06,068 --> 00:45:12,909 know where we are 749 00:45:08,369 --> 00:45:17,470 this can be answered with this picture 750 00:45:12,909 --> 00:45:19,989 here this is the infrared spectra from 751 00:45:17,469 --> 00:45:23,169 the solar system and you see this the 752 00:45:19,989 --> 00:45:27,219 Venus you see Earth and Mars in the 753 00:45:23,170 --> 00:45:30,548 infrared and you see the very big carbon 754 00:45:27,219 --> 00:45:33,789 dioxide bands here in all of these 755 00:45:30,548 --> 00:45:37,480 planets but only on earth do you have 756 00:45:33,789 --> 00:45:41,019 the water vapor band and this water 757 00:45:37,480 --> 00:45:44,190 vapor bed is already there since 4.4 758 00:45:41,019 --> 00:45:46,019 billion years so it cannot be overlooked 759 00:45:44,190 --> 00:45:49,980 for very long 760 00:45:46,019 --> 00:45:53,730 I mean also already ozone is there which 761 00:45:49,980 --> 00:45:57,449 is a sure sign of life and B it's there 762 00:45:53,730 --> 00:46:00,349 already - since 2.5 billion years 763 00:45:57,449 --> 00:46:06,239 now in a few years time we will be able 764 00:46:00,349 --> 00:46:09,509 to resolve all the terrestrial planets 765 00:46:06,239 --> 00:46:12,029 on all stars of our Milky Way with 766 00:46:09,510 --> 00:46:14,880 gigantic telescopes floating in the 767 00:46:12,030 --> 00:46:20,550 solar system and communicated with laser 768 00:46:14,880 --> 00:46:24,570 beams and they we will be able to see 769 00:46:20,550 --> 00:46:27,150 the infrared spectra of these planets in 770 00:46:24,570 --> 00:46:30,600 a few let's say a hundred years or so 771 00:46:27,150 --> 00:46:34,500 and therefore we'll all know on which 772 00:46:30,599 --> 00:46:39,089 planet in our galaxy life exists let me 773 00:46:34,500 --> 00:46:41,190 come to the last slide we have learned 774 00:46:39,090 --> 00:46:43,950 about extraterrestrial intelligent 775 00:46:41,190 --> 00:46:46,950 civilization that compared to us they 776 00:46:43,949 --> 00:46:49,789 are almost Omni signed compared to us 777 00:46:46,949 --> 00:46:52,409 they are imaginably advanced 778 00:46:49,789 --> 00:46:57,619 technologically therefore there is 779 00:46:52,409 --> 00:47:01,949 absolutely no problem contacting us and 780 00:46:57,619 --> 00:47:08,150 visiting us because they are essentially 781 00:47:01,949 --> 00:47:11,969 in a immortal but we have also learned 782 00:47:08,150 --> 00:47:15,059 with this very advanced knowledge comes 783 00:47:11,969 --> 00:47:18,980 the extreme danger of self-destruction 784 00:47:15,059 --> 00:47:22,429 and only those societies will survive 785 00:47:18,980 --> 00:47:26,250 which have developed a stable 786 00:47:22,429 --> 00:47:30,000 responsible civilization to master this 787 00:47:26,250 --> 00:47:33,949 danger and therefore from these beings 788 00:47:30,000 --> 00:47:37,110 you cannot expect irresponsible behavior 789 00:47:33,949 --> 00:47:39,239 now there is the sole hypothesis which 790 00:47:37,110 --> 00:47:43,050 explains the Fermi paradox 791 00:47:39,239 --> 00:47:45,449 it says developed by Baal and sagen they 792 00:47:43,050 --> 00:47:50,940 know where we are but they don't want 793 00:47:45,449 --> 00:47:54,269 any contact because because contact 794 00:47:50,940 --> 00:47:56,250 would be extremely irresponsible just 795 00:47:54,269 --> 00:47:58,619 think what would happen it would 796 00:47:56,250 --> 00:48:00,420 something much worse would have 797 00:47:58,619 --> 00:48:06,210 and then happened to the American 798 00:48:00,420 --> 00:48:11,309 Indians when Columbus came we would we 799 00:48:06,210 --> 00:48:15,869 would have to forget all what we have 800 00:48:11,309 --> 00:48:20,099 learned in science yeah because they 801 00:48:15,869 --> 00:48:23,539 have a billion-year more science than we 802 00:48:20,099 --> 00:48:26,249 we could forget all of our cultural and 803 00:48:23,539 --> 00:48:31,019 Mozart and so on because they have so 804 00:48:26,248 --> 00:48:33,298 much more and bigger things and this 805 00:48:31,018 --> 00:48:36,989 would be a tragedy because we would have 806 00:48:33,298 --> 00:48:39,960 we would have to forget our own destiny 807 00:48:36,989 --> 00:48:43,768 in our own things and we could never 808 00:48:39,960 --> 00:48:48,179 show what could become of us in a 809 00:48:43,768 --> 00:48:51,379 billion years time so it would be 810 00:48:48,179 --> 00:48:55,518 utterly irresponsible and it cannot be 811 00:48:51,380 --> 00:48:59,809 expected from these animal from these 812 00:48:55,518 --> 00:49:03,538 aliens from these aliens that they will 813 00:48:59,809 --> 00:49:07,079 contact us because if they would be 814 00:49:03,539 --> 00:49:10,440 capable of irresponsibility they would 815 00:49:07,079 --> 00:49:14,960 long have killed themselves let me 816 00:49:10,440 --> 00:49:16,889 summarize what I was what I said I said 817 00:49:14,960 --> 00:49:21,509 extraterrestrial intelligent beings 818 00:49:16,889 --> 00:49:26,298 exist they avoid all contacts and 819 00:49:21,509 --> 00:49:30,869 actually I claim that they observers 820 00:49:26,298 --> 00:49:33,509 because intelligent societies are the 821 00:49:30,869 --> 00:49:36,119 most interesting things in our galaxy 822 00:49:33,509 --> 00:49:39,230 black holes they know since billions of 823 00:49:36,119 --> 00:49:43,818 years nothing mysterious and even 824 00:49:39,230 --> 00:49:47,548 asteroids and so on but intelligent 825 00:49:43,818 --> 00:49:50,880 societies are very individualistic are 826 00:49:47,548 --> 00:49:53,278 very scarce in the in our galaxy and 827 00:49:50,880 --> 00:49:55,499 therefore we must be intensely 828 00:49:53,278 --> 00:49:58,909 interesting probably the only very 829 00:49:55,498 --> 00:50:04,048 interesting thing in our galaxy and now 830 00:49:58,909 --> 00:50:08,710 you will say that I has lost screw up 831 00:50:04,048 --> 00:50:12,338 here I claim that they are here on earth 832 00:50:08,710 --> 00:50:14,380 or maybe in the solar system my 833 00:50:12,338 --> 00:50:20,019 reasoning is the following thing the 834 00:50:14,380 --> 00:50:24,608 only time when these beings might be 835 00:50:20,019 --> 00:50:27,009 tempted to intervene would be when there 836 00:50:24,608 --> 00:50:29,500 would be a super bin-laden here to press 837 00:50:27,010 --> 00:50:31,960 the red button and kill all of mankind 838 00:50:29,500 --> 00:50:34,659 they would have observed that for two 839 00:50:31,960 --> 00:50:37,409 million years and to see what comes out 840 00:50:34,659 --> 00:50:40,269 of us yeah but will develop out of us 841 00:50:37,409 --> 00:50:44,049 and then one guy will finish the 842 00:50:40,269 --> 00:50:47,289 experiment now in order to prevent this 843 00:50:44,050 --> 00:50:49,089 they might actually be tempted to change 844 00:50:47,289 --> 00:50:52,690 this guy a little bit without him 845 00:50:49,088 --> 00:50:56,608 knowing it yeah but in order to do that 846 00:50:52,690 --> 00:50:59,440 they cannot observe from 1700 847 00:50:56,608 --> 00:51:01,420 light-years away because if they would 848 00:50:59,440 --> 00:51:05,318 then come the whole thing would be 849 00:51:01,420 --> 00:51:08,710 finished yeah they can only do it if 850 00:51:05,318 --> 00:51:12,420 they were here and so I claim and they 851 00:51:08,710 --> 00:51:12,420 are here thank you very much